Consciously obey the overall situation and improve macro-control (commentator observation)
In an exclusive interview, we explore the importance of enhancing the consistency of macroeconomic policies as a cornerstone for promoting balanced economic growth. Macro policies serve as essential tools for maintaining overall economic equilibrium, optimizing structures, and driving high-quality development. The recent remarks from the Central Committee’s Politburo underscored the need for careful evaluation of policy alignment and enhanced expectations management.
To ensure a stable and transparent policy environment, it’s crucial that we send clear and consistent signals to the market. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that China’s GDP for the first three quarters of this year reached 94.97 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.8% at constant prices. This steady economic performance is significantly attributed to robust and effective macro policies. Since the third quarter, measures have included lowering bank reserve requirements, guiding reductions in existing mortgage rates, standardizing down payment requirements, and implementing various incentives for businesses. These coordinated monetary and fiscal policies have reinvigorated market confidence and supported a positive economic recovery trend.
Economic and social development is inherently complex, necessitating a comprehensive approach that considers political, economic, historical, cultural, developmental, resource-related, ecological, and international factors. At the Central Economic Work Conference held last year, one of the key directives was to “enhance the consistency of macro policies.” In a recent related session, the State Council emphasized the importance of coherent policy collaboration to improve implementation outcomes. This consistency requires a systems perspective, promoting broader awareness of how policies interact with one another, and ensuring that they are synchronized and effective.
Taking the real estate market as a case in point, we’ve seen a resurgence in activity during the recent holiday period: new home purchases in Shenzhen surged by over 664% compared to last year, while Beijing saw a 730% increase in new home registrations, and Shanghai’s daily sales of second-hand homes nearly tripled from 2023 levels. This revitalization can be attributed to a well-coordinated set of policies aimed at stabilizing growth and supporting livelihoods.
As we analyze the dynamics of the market economy, it’s evident that expectations and confidence play pivotal roles. A unified macroeconomic policy direction sends clear signals to market players, which is especially critical in times of economic downturn. By providing consistent and explicit indications, we can foster a stable policy environment that truly stabilizes expectations and boosts confidence.
Recently, the draft law to promote the private economy has sought public feedback, highlighting a comprehensive approach to encourage private investment in major national projects. Policies are being aligned to reinforce the commitment to supporting both public and private sectors while ensuring stability and growth.
A meticulous review of how various policies impact economic metrics—such as overall growth, supply and demand, industry-specific conditions, and employment—is essential. By prioritizing actions that stabilize growth and employment and taking caution with policies that may have repressive effects, we can create effective expectation management and facilitate a mutually reinforcing cycle of positive outlooks and economic recovery.
Effective macroeconomic regulation and governance are critical to realizing the advantages of a socialist market economy. Enhancing policy consistency is vital for improving regulatory efficiency. It’s important to establish comprehensive mechanisms for evaluating policy coherence, including the effects of non-economic policies on economic development, expectation stability, and societal well-being.
President Xi Jinping emphasized the need to consider potential negative impacts of any policy, regardless of its initial intent. By fully understanding the interconnections between various policies and reinforcing their alignment, we can amplify their overall effectiveness, driving significant momentum towards achieving annual economic and social targets.
As we continue this conversation, it is evident that clear policy signals and unified action are essential for navigating the complexities of our economic landscape and for fostering sustainable development.
