Chinese real estate agents look at the -Silver Ten– the overall market is OK This year is better than last year
As China enters its traditional peak shopping season known as “Golden September and Silver October,” many are closely observing the performance of its housing, automotive, and consumer markets. Following the “Golden Week” holiday, questions arise about whether interest will pick up in October. Some local residents have noted a slight recovery in consumer spending this year during this peak period, especially with the imminent “Double 11” shopping festival that typically boosts expenditures.
In a recent interview, a real estate agent from Shanghai shared insights on the housing market during this year’s “Golden September.” They acknowledged that conditions were relatively poor in September but expressed optimism about October, stating, “The overall market is better now. However, ‘good’ or ‘bad’ is relative. This year is significantly better than last year, and we’ve seen more people interested in buying homes compared to earlier in September.”
As for the dynamics post-“Golden September,” the rebound in housing, automotive, and consumer markets shows varying degrees of recovery. Wang Guochen, an assistant researcher at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, explained that while the middle class is the primary driver of consumption, several factors are hindering their spending. He pointed out that investment sentiment is low, government salary cuts are prevalent, and stricter regulations on financial institutions have affected the affluent and white-collar workers. He added that the pre-existing crackdowns on internet monopolies have also impacted consumer confidence. “In this context, the middle class, along with others, finds themselves with less disposable income available for spending,” he noted.
Wang further anticipated that the effects following “Golden September and Silver October” will not be positive, suggesting that things are unlikely to improve, as there doesn’t appear to be a robust recovery.
Data from China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism shows that during the recent seven-day “Golden Week” holiday, domestic travel increased by 10.2% compared to the same period in 2019. However, total spending only grew by 7.9% during that time, indicating that the average expenditure per trip for Chinese tourists has actually decreased by 2.1% compared to five years ago.
