Enrollment rates plummet, California public schools facing crisis of closing_1
As California continues to see a decline in student enrollment, many school districts may be forced to follow in the footsteps of the San Francisco Unified School District (SFUSD), which has recently proposed a list of schools that could close at the end of the academic year due to budget deficits resulting from dwindling student numbers.
According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the decrease in enrollment in the SFUSD is undeniable, but it’s not the only district facing significant drops. Over the past decade, enrollment rates across California’s school districts have declined, largely driven by reduced immigration and falling birth rates. The California Department of Finance predicts that public schools in the state may lose over 700,000 students in the next ten years.
The Public Policy Institute of California has reported that, among the public schools in California that have experienced significant enrollment losses, only about one-third have opted for school closures. However, as the trend continues, many districts may have no choice but to consider similar measures as SFUSD.
Julien Lafortune, an economist at the institute, stated, “In some respects, it’s unreasonable to keep schools open during economic hardship. If a school’s enrollment is less than half or a third of its capacity but it still incurs fixed costs, the cost per student becomes prohibitively high. That’s when tough decisions must be made.”
The Chronicle notes that during the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic, many parents chose not to send their children to preschool or opted for homeschooling, causing public school enrollment to drop significantly. However, the ongoing decline appears to be influenced more by long-standing factors such as reduced immigration and lower birth rates. For decades, California has seen a net population loss, with fewer births each year compared to the peaks of the 1990s and 2000s.
State data indicates that the drop in enrollment in San Francisco’s public schools has been relatively mild, decreasing approximately 3% from 2013 to 2023, compared to an 8% decline across the Bay Area and a 6% drop statewide. However, projections suggest the number of students in San Francisco will fall from 56,500 in 2023 to 47,300 by 2033, a decrease of 16%—exceeding the state’s overall forecast of a 12% decline and falling short of the nearly 20% drop anticipated in the greater Los Angeles area.
Nonetheless, Lafortune highlighted that the situation may not be as dire as it seems, thanks in part to California’s transitional kindergarten program, which has expanded access to early education for children and helps stabilize enrollment rates. Without this measure, the decline in public school enrollment could have been even steeper.
According to the Public Policy Institute of California, between 2012 and 2021, nearly 700 of California’s approximately 10,000 public schools were closed, affecting around 167,000 students. Most of the closed schools had a high percentage of low-income and non-native English-speaking students.
